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#1 Posted : Wednesday, July 10, 2019 11:22:16 PM(UTC)

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Looks like a good long term dividend growth play.
Feel free to pull this analysis of this Dividend Aristocrat apart, and I'll try to defend it. Thank you.

WBA_SSG.pdf (805kb) downloaded 6 time(s).

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#2 Posted : Tuesday, July 23, 2019 11:01:32 PM(UTC)

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I am a bit more pessimistic on WBA. However, even with my more pessimistic projections WBA is still in the Buy range with an upside/downside ratio 4.6 to 1.
I used sales and EPS growth of 5%. This is lower than the Value Line estimate of 9 and 11% respectively. I based my estimate on the average growth over the last 8 quarters. Using the preferred procedure (sales based EPS growth estimate) the EPS rate was close to 5% so I kept both at 5%.
I used slightly lower high and low PE estimates also. For my low price estimate I went with 38. I rounded 70% of the current price to get that price. With the UK looking more likely to hit a no deal Brexit with estimates of a 2% GDP decline and higher estimates of a 2020 US recession are the reasons for the my low price estimate. (Average drop in a recession is about 30%.
My SSG is attached as a PDF file also.
Finally, Thanks for posting some SSGs. It is good to see.
WBA-RM.pdf (46kb) downloaded 0 time(s).

Russell Malley
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