It’s good to see some SSG discussion at long last.
- The last such discussion was started by Sean Pulrang on 5-26 (BWLD) and he has not responded to follow-ups by Danny and myself. Joe Craig never seems to discuss SSGs and maybe never discusses anything any more. Douglas Gerlach hasn’t discussed a SSG in a long, long time.
- The four session SSG workshop I led last year (which took lots of preparation) got only 1 or 2 responses, none from StockCentral people, not even a thank you.
- I’m reluctant to initiate posts as I’ve gotten zero responses to my last four (on AMED, GILD, DHR, and BKE). If StockCentral wants to have community discussions, I think StockCentral people need to be a lot more active and encouraging.
- SSGing AFL is tricky since it has averaged -2.1% EPS over the last four years with Hemscott data (-1.7% with S&P data). These four poor years make the 10 year average unreliable and when the downturn will end is just a guess.
- On the other hand, EPS estimates from six analysts are currently averaging 14.57% for the long term, about half of your 7.00%. First Call via YahooFinance was the lowest I checked at 13.83% with FactSet CallStreet and S&P both high at 15.00%.
- I would not rely on any SSG for AFL at this time and would not try to SSG it myself.
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