- Value Line updated its report on December 7 and warned that FDS's performance may suffer if Wall Street firms cut-back their spending should the "choppy" market and economy continue;

 - FDS was the Stock to Study in the January 2008 issue of Better Investing magazine and the article mentions that 77% of its revenue comes from investment management clients and 23% from investment banking customers;

- FDS's price has fallen some 19% in the last 2 months (from $64.10 on 11-18 to $52.07 today) and now just about any SSG should be in the BUY zone;

 - Take Stock Online now shows a 24% Total Return for FDS, because of the big price drop, even though it has not changed any of its 'judgments' from 2 months ago;

- Who is willing to BUY FDS at its current price?

Armin

ps: why does Take Stock show a Buy Price of $64.76 and say that FDS might be a buy at $51.80??

Hey Pat:

Did you know you can edit your messages (even long after you post) and that you do not have to make corrections or additions separately.

You should also attach your SSG: even though your initial post was very thorough, there are some abbreviations I don't understand and some other facts I'd like to know.

I'll post a comparison tomorrow of our SSGs along with Take Stock's.

As Woody Allen might say: I "lurves" comparisons.

(Your joke suggests you might be from the D.C area, is that right?)

Armin

Pat Landers’ investment club is evaluating FDS and Pat says his SSG looks like a “strong Buy.”  Here’s a comparison of Pat’s SSG and mine along with the analysis by Take Stock On-Line:

COMMENTS: 

- The analysts are estimating long-term EPS growth at around 18% with Value Line low at 16.5% and Reuters as well as First Call high at 18.33%.  Zacks is 17.00% and S&P and FactSet CallStreet are 18.0%.  Reuters less one Standard Deviation, what I use most often (but not here), is 17.1%;

- Pat estimated EPS growth of 13.40% which is a lot less than the analysts, but both our SSGs are very close in terms of results: our Forecast High Price and Total Return are almost identical;

- Take Stock is the surprising exception and is way more optimistic than Pat or myself: its Forecast High Price is some $40 per share more than ours and a whopping $44 or 42% per share more than Value Line;

- VL updated its FDS report on 3-7-08 and: (1) lowered its estimated PE in the next 3-5 years from 22.0 to 20.5; (2) lowered its estimated EPS growth rate from 17.5% to 16.5%; and (3) raised its estimated High Price from $65-100 to $70-105.  And, FDS’s price continued to fall some $5.65 per share from the prior VL report three months ago;

- FDS seems like an excellent company and I am most impressed with its 95+% customer retention rate; the big uncertainty is the market;

- There are lots of good-looking companies, with good-looking SSGs, that have been hammered down in price (INFY, SBUX, MDT, COH, FIC, and JKHY for example): I’d seek to choose those that have the best chance of making the best recovery for the long-term.

QUESTIONS:

- What is it about Take Stock On-Line’s programming that makes it so optimistic about FDS, even more optimistic in its EPS estimate than any of the six analysts I checked, even though it is designed to produce a conservative result?

Armin