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StockCentral :: Community
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Join in on the discussion with other like-minded investors in our community forums. Learn about the fundamental investing methodology and participate in educational workshops in the Investing forums, stay up-to-date on StockCentral news and make suggestions to the StockCentral team in Central Square, and discuss your favorite stock or recent market news in our A-Z ticker-based forums.
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rip west
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| 11/16/2006 7:05 PM |
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Are these analyst's estimates in our future?
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Doug Gerlach
Cambridge, MA
http://www.iclub.com/
President, ICLUBcentral
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| 11/19/2006 12:25 PM |
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Posted By Rip West on 11/16/2006 7:05 PM
Are these analyst's estimates in our future?
No, we don't expect to provide analysts' consensus estimates.
Evidence suggests Analysts' Consensus Estimates are next to useless. As Ellis Traub writes in Take Stock:
David Dreman, author of Contrarian Investment Strategies: The Next Generation (Simon and Schuster, 1998), offers some statistics taken from a study of all companies followed by a minimum of four analysts-about 1,000 companies-over a 23-year period. Dreman suggests that analysts' estimates of earnings four quarters out were off by at least 5 percent 124 out of 125 times. And when the analysts were estimating five years out, the odds against their being right were 30 billion to one!
We'll be working towards generating our own StockCentral Community Consensus Estimates instead. It doesn't seem inconceivable to believe that a community of investors using a sensible investing strategy could come a whole lot closer to being right than 30 billion to one.
Doug
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Posting from ICLUBcentral world headquarters in the Harvard Square's historic College House, Cambridge, MA
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