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StockCentral :: Community
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Join in on the discussion with other like-minded investors in our community forums. Learn about the fundamental investing methodology and participate in educational workshops in the Investing forums, stay up-to-date on StockCentral news and make suggestions to the StockCentral team in Central Square, and discuss your favorite stock or recent market news in our A-Z ticker-based forums.
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Chris Kagy
Arlington, VA
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| 05/15/2007 4:05 PM |
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If you have a moment, you might want to take a look at the online Take Stock output for CHL. A couple things that might be inconsistent caught my eye a moment ago:
Low profit margins are being flagged in the efficiency section. I assume this is because for the last 3 years the profit margins have been below the historical average, even though they are relatively flat and still above 30%.
It has an overall growth index of 3.2, though sales predictability is 9.6, earnings predictability is 7.4, and growth rates are all above 14%. It is this super-low growth index is puzzling when the other sub-items on the growth page are so positive.
-Chris
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Joe Craig
Ellicott City, MD
StockCentral Administrator
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| 05/15/2007 4:44 PM |
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I don't agree with you that Take Stock is inconsistent here. Take Stock demands a lot from a company!
If you look at the TSSW Worksheet (the front) you'll see graphically that PTPM peaked in 2002. It also looks like there was a bump in sales and earnings, too. The Quality Index is made of of things related to growth and profitability, so it's not surprising that quality takes a hit. Earnings predictabilty of 7.4 is not desirable, as we're trying to estimate earnings into the future.
It looks to me that there are things to worry about, which is why Take Stock assigns a lower quality rating.
Much worse, I would say is the fact that we don't have the 2006 FY data, and the last quarterly data is almost a year old. I don't know a darned thing about CHL, but ... since Yahoo Finance has the same scarceness of data, and I can't find any SEC filings for CHL there, I'm wondering if something has happened ... |
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Joe |
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Chris Kagy
Arlington, VA
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| 05/15/2007 5:14 PM |
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I don't disagree with your assessment of the company, Joe. Not a bit.
:-) Rather, I found myself confused by the high growth rates and the
(relative) consistency of sales and earnings setting up against the
low quality rating.
The more I use the takestock tool, the more I see that there's a _lot_ going on
behind the scenes.
-Chris |
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sally an
ICLUBcentral, Inc.
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| 05/15/2007 5:22 PM |
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Hi Chris,
If you look at the growth section of online Take Stock on symbol "CHL", you will find EPS predictability is 7.4, which doesn't fit into the "very stable" bracket. And this makes growth rate only 3.2, which influenced the overall quality index. The calculation of growth index is very strict, so even one element (out of the six) failed to meet the best condition, the growth index will be influenced a lot negatively.
The reason of the difference between online Take Stock and desktop Take$tock 4, is that online Take Stock use Iclub's data source while desktop Take$tock uses betterinvesting's data source. In this case of "CHL", Iclub data source does not have "analyst estimate EPS forecast growth rate", while desktop Take$tock's data source has this piece of data and the analyst estimate value is lower than calculatied projection, so in desktop Take$tock, analyst estimate EPS forecast growth over-writes the calculated value. And this made the whole difference.
We tested online Take Stock with better investing's data source, and it produce same result as desktop Take $tock, so we can assure you the two versions of Take Stock are consistent with each other.
Hope this answers your question.
Sally |
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ICLUBcentral Software Engineer |
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Chris Kagy
Arlington, VA
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| 05/15/2007 7:18 PM |
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| Thank you, too, Sally. That helps fill in a little more of the picture. |
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Richard Yurick
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| 05/16/2007 11:09 AM |
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Are you aware that this company only reports financial results twice a year? This may affect how the computer judges is company since it usually assumes quarterly data.
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Chris Kagy
Arlington, VA
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| 05/16/2007 2:51 PM |
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Yes, Richard, I was aware that they only report every 6 months. I should have mentioned that above, but it didn't occur to me that it was relevant.
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