Joe Craig
Ellicott City, MD
StockCentral Administrator
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| 12/27/2006 4:32 PM |
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StockCentral will kick off 2007 with a competition that features several of our best-known analysts!
Join Ralph Seger, Ellis Traub, Mark Robertson, Douglas Gerlach and Danny Matthews as they manage portfolios in 2007 ... and beyond!
The rules are simple:
- Each analyst will create a portfolio of 5 stocks
- $1000 of each stock will be "purchased" on 1/1/2007 at the 12/31/2006 closing price. No commissions will be charges for the initial purchases.
- Thereafter, stock can be replaced as often as desired. For these transactions, buys and sells will occur at closing prices on the days that the trades are made, and prevailing low-cost commissions (using the sharebuilder.com rate table) will apply.
- Each analyst will provide data and commentary for each purchase, and each analyst will participate in ongoing discussions in the StockCentral Forums.
- StockCentral will do the record keeping, and will publish updated portfolios quarterly, or whenever a participant makes a sell or buy transaction.
Be sure to join us starting January 1 for the unveiling of the portfolios. Each Monday through Friday, we will reveal one participants' pick. After 5 weeks, the initial portfolios will be available.
- All portfolio discussions will occur in The Classroom
- All individual stock discussions will occur in the ticker forums for each stock.
Feel free to comment, ask questions, participate in discussions, or even challenge our experts by uploading your own analysis, including your SSG files!
The discussion begins here on January 1, 2007.
Happy New Year!
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Joe |
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Joe Craig
Ellicott City, MD
StockCentral Administrator
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| 01/01/2007 10:43 AM |
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Happy New Year, everyone! And, welcome to StockCentral's "25 Top Stock Picks for 2007" and Beyond."
Our first order of business will be to introduce our participants and their picks.
Our participants are Ralph Seger, Ellis Traub, Douglas Gerlach, Mark Robertson and Danny Matthews.
Beginning today and for each weekday, we will introduce one pick from each of our stock pickers. Look for "Ralph Seger's Portfolio" to see Ralph's picks, and so on. With each pick, I will place a "seeder" topic in the Ticker Forum for that topic.
The first pick will be from Ralph Seger.
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Joe |
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Stephanie Bader
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| 01/02/2007 11:12 AM |
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I've been looking for "Ralph Seger's Portfolio", but I can't find it. Is there going to be a contest tab?
Thanks,
Stephanie |
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Joe Craig
Ellicott City, MD
StockCentral Administrator
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| 01/02/2007 11:23 AM |
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> I've been looking for "Ralph Seger's Portfolio"
There is a topic with that name right here in The Classroom. Ralph's first pick is there. Danny Matthews' first pick is in another similarly named topic.
We'll be revealing other picks -- one every weekday -- until all five portfolios are complete. |
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Richard Johnson
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| 01/03/2007 7:37 PM |
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I give up - I can't find any of the selections by the panel members. I looked everywhere.
Richard |
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Norinda Taitt
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| 01/03/2007 7:50 PM |
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| Where do I find the portfolios? |
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Joe Craig
Ellicott City, MD
StockCentral Administrator
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| 01/03/2007 7:58 PM |
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Richard, Norinda and others ...
Look at the list of topics here in The Classroom. You'll see three topics so far with these subjects:
- Ellis Traub's Portfolio
- Ralph Seger's Portfolio
- Danny Matthews' Portfolio
Tomorrow we'll add Mark Robertson's Portfolio to the list. We'll add Doug Gerlach's Portfolio on Friday.
You'll find the initial selections from these folks in the messages, and you'll also find links to the ticker forums where you can discuss each of the picks.
I hope that this is enough information to help you locate the picks. If not, try clicking on the "Active Topics" link, and set the time back several days so that you can see all of the messages. If that's not enough, ask more questions!
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Joe |
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Roff Johannson
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| 01/04/2007 1:37 AM |
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| Look WHERE??? |
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Joe Craig
Ellicott City, MD
StockCentral Administrator
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| 01/04/2007 2:46 AM |
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When you are in "The Classroom" forum, look at the list of topics that is available.
There is another way to find recently active topics. If you are on the "community" page, you'll see a set of tabs in the middle of the page. By clicking on the individual tabs, you'll see the topics and a beginning fragment of each topic. You can click on the topic's subject to view that topic.
Note that the forums are arranged in groups, and the tabs correspond to the individual groups ...
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William Biedenstein
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| 01/04/2007 10:18 AM |
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Well, I am pleased to know that others agree with me. So far, I see Lowe's and L-3 Communications have been chosen by the panel of experts-- two stocks I have owned "for yrears."
My investment club is always looking for good companies. I will refer them here.
We have our own stock contest, which coincidentally begins January 1 and will conclude in December. We have a few more days to make our entries. I sometimes wonder how people make their choices. I appreciate the experts sharing their rationale. |
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Eileen Shephard
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| 01/04/2007 3:50 PM |
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Joe: I'm lovin' this site. Keep up the good work, and whoever said the best things in life are free was right--but I'll be the first in line to actually pay money next year!
Kudos to Stock Central!!! |
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Lynn Brown
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| 01/05/2007 2:49 PM |
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I am having trouble getting back to page that has portfolios listed after looking at comments and SSG on one person's recommendation. Also, it would help to be able to quickly get to Classroom from the Home page. I am not navigating easily.
By the way, download of SSG in either SSG or TKE worked really great. Lynn |
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Joe Craig
Ellicott City, MD
StockCentral Administrator
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| 01/05/2007 3:10 PM |
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| There is now a link in the announcements column on the front page that takes you directly to The Classroom. |
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Arnold Siemsen
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| 01/06/2007 7:27 PM |
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I think you have a great idea in going about picking these 25 stocks. Consider adding a bench mark such as athe S&P 500 Index for comparison. Personally, I am going to study each of the five stocks as they come out and then pick what I think is the best stock. In the end I will have 5 stocks which are my pick of the best. Keep up the good work.
Arnie Siemsen |
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Dan Hess
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| 01/06/2007 8:27 PM |
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Arnie
How about telling us which of the first 5 you consider the best and why? I suspect with all the gurus here you may receive some feedback on factors you may not have considered. Or maybe even some differing opinions. Possibly even a friendly debate between Ralph, Doug, Mark and Ellis. 
Dan Hess |
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Arnold Siemsen
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| 01/07/2007 1:03 PM |
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I think you and I both know where most of the participants stand. For years I have been trying to figure out the relative importance of data on the SSG. Are some principals more important then others? After running my screens I come up with 50-60 companies. I want to rank them so that I start my detailed research with the "best" prospect. When you rank the companies do you assign different weights to different factors?
Factor #1: How reliable is the sales growth line on the front side? What is the R^2?
LOW: 1.000
LLL: .992
LIFC: .967
TALX: .879
LLTC: .263
Now assisgn a value of 1 to LOW and 5 to LLTC
Factor #2: How reliable is the EPS growth line on the front side? What is the R^2?
LLL: .995
LOW: .992
TALX: .894
LLTC: .223
LIFC: NA (not 7 years of data)
Now assign a value of 1 to LLL and 5 to LIFC
Current Ranking: (Add up values)
LLL: 3
LOW: 3
TALX: 7
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Arnold Siemsen
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| 01/07/2007 1:06 PM |
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LIFC: 8
LLTC: 9
Thus at this stage, LOW and LLL are tied in ranking.
Arnie Siemsen |
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Dan Hess
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| 01/07/2007 3:29 PM |
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Arnie
That is an interesting approach and one I have not considered. It seems this would reward companies like LOW that have had consistent sales and EPS growth as indicated by high R^2 numbers. Or simply "railroad" track front sides.
It does seem to me the contestants are focusing on higher total return as opposed to higher quality.
I tend to view LOW and LLTC to be on top. Both stock prices have been hit quite severely price wise and have been basically flat for 3 years. Both companies have had some problems but I am expecting the economy to be able to make a smooth landing this year and then resume growth in 2008. I think both will make recoveries and see their stock prices rise during 2007. Thus I tend to agree with both Ellis and Mark with their selections. I should add I have not closely followed LLL, TALX or LIFC and thus may not understand their potential. I also may be biased since I own shares in both LOW and LLTC and thus I may be simply hoping Ellis and Mark are correct.
Dan Hess |
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William Biedenstein
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| 01/09/2007 9:47 AM |
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I have been following the recommendations, which I find interesting. So far, I see LLL, Amgen, Talx, LifeCell, Lowe's and Linear Technology, three of which I own. Talx, is a St. Louis based company which our St. Louis group studied years ago when it was selling at $8 a share (it was in danger of being delisted because of accounting irregularities-- a "no-no" as far as I am concerned). Those sins have since been forgiven.
A quick question-- perhaps I missed it-- is there a finish line to this contest?
Bill Biedenstein
St. Louis |
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Joe Craig
Ellicott City, MD
StockCentral Administrator
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| 01/09/2007 11:33 AM |
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We will track these portfolios for at least the next year, and we'll decide at the end of 2006 2007 what to do for the future. We'd like to make this a long-term (5-year) effort, provided that our stock pickers are willing to go that distance!
We'll be providing quarterly updates, and special updates should any of the participants decide to replace any of their picks.
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Joe |
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Laura Scott
Florida
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| 01/09/2007 5:39 PM |
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| You do mean 2007 right? |
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Joe Craig
Ellicott City, MD
StockCentral Administrator
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| 01/09/2007 6:27 PM |
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Joe |
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Arnold Siemsen
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| 01/09/2007 6:54 PM |
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After ranking the straightness of the Sales and EPS lines I rank sales growth and margins. I look at the CAGR for sales at 6 yrs., 2 yrs., 1 yr. and TTM. I pick the lowest value as this is where the growth may revert. This leads to the following ranking: LLL = 36.6, LIFC = 34.8, TALX = 29.1, LOW = 15.5 and LLTC = 4.1. Assigning a number of 1 to 5 for this ranking and adding to the previous numbers we have: LLL = 4, LOW = 7, TALX = 10, LIFC = 10 and LLTC = 14. So at this stage LLL is leading the rankings.
Arnie Siemsen |
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Erma Lenz
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| 01/10/2007 3:55 PM |
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| msft lfc lvs dell ben |
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Rebecca Osborne
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| 01/15/2007 2:03 PM |
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Joe, you might consider moving this thread to the top of the page as a "sticky" so it is just above the portfolios of the participants.
I could tell from reading the portfolios it was a "competition/contest" of sorts but couldn't find the details. Was directed to this thread only through someone's reference to it in one of the actual stock discussions.
Rebecca |
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