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StockCentral :: Community
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Join in on the discussion with other like-minded investors in our community forums. Learn about the fundamental investing methodology and participate in educational workshops in the Investing forums, stay up-to-date on StockCentral news and make suggestions to the StockCentral team in Central Square, and discuss your favorite stock or recent market news in our A-Z ticker-based forums.
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sally an
ICLUBcentral, Inc.
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| 05/17/2007 4:33 PM |
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| Infosys Technologies Limited, a technology services company, defines, designs, and delivers information technology (IT) enabled business solutions. The company, together with its subsidiaries, provides various services, including custom application development; maintenance and production support; software reengineering; package evaluation and implementation; IT consulting; and other solutions, such as independent validation solutions, operations and business process consulting, engineering services, business process management, systems integration, and infrastructure management services. It also develops, markets, and licenses banking products and solutions, such as Finacle suite, a Web-enabled solution that addresses banks' core banking, treasury, wealth management, consumer and corporate e-banking, mobile banking, and Web-based cash management requirements. In addition, the company provides business process management services, such as offsite customer relationship management, finance and accounting, and administration and sales order processing. It serves financial services, manufacturing, telecommunications, logistics, utilities, and retail sectors in North America, Europe, and the Asia Pacific region. The company was founded in 1981. It was formerly known as Infosys Consultants Private Limited and changed its name to Infosys Technologies Private Limited in April 1992. Further, it changed its name to Infosys Technologies Limited in June 1992. The company is headquartered in Bangalore, India. |
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ICLUBcentral Software Engineer |
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Sean Pulrang
Cambridge, Massachusetts
http://www.iclub.com
ICLUBcentral
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| 06/01/2007 10:07 AM |
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| I just did an SSG for this company, and My Goodness ! They've been growing pretty fast for the last ten years, and doing some figuring, it looks like it's in the buy range now. I did the ssg in Stock Analyst because I like to tinker a bit, and be more conservative in the historical analysis than Toolkit allows sometimes. Even with that, this looks pretty exciting. |
 Attachment: INFY.SSG
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--
Sean Pulrang
Asst. Mgr. Tech Support Dept., ICLUBcentral Inc.
To file a support request, visit: http://www.iclub.com/support |
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armin fields
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| 06/01/2007 9:32 PM |
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Hey Sean:
Here's how our SSGs compare:
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SEAN
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ARMIN
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Future Sales Growth Est
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20.00%
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23.00%
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Future EPS Growth Est
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20.00%
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22.00%
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Hi PE
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48.8
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33.0
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Hi Price
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$182.10
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$133.70
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Lo PE
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24.5
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16.6
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Lo Price
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$36.80
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$24.70
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Upside/Downside Ratio
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10.7
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3.3
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Total Return
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30.4%
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22.5%
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Price
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$49.25
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$50.15
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SSG Date
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5-31-07
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5-22-07
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Data Source
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S&P
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S&P
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Analysts are estimating long-term EPS growth from 26.00% (VL) to 27.50% (Reuters) with Zacks, First Call and S&P at ~27.00%, and Reuters less 1 Standard Deviation at 23.00%.
Compared to you, I was slightly more optimistic with my growth estimates, but much more conservative with my PE projections. You used the 5 year ave Hi/Lo PEs, but I see that PEs are trending down from 59.1/31.6 in 2002 to 40.9/21.3 in 2006. Moreover, the last two years of Hi PEs are below the 48.8 average you used.
Both our Forecast High Price exceed Value Line's $80-125 estimate, mine by $8.70 or 12% per share and yours by $57.10 or 46% per share. I always compare the SSG's High Price to VL's to see who and what is in the ballpark.
I'm also wary of double digit U/D Ratios which suggest over-optimism to me
Questions:
(1) There are a surprising number of successful IT companies with a connection to India: besides INFY, I know of SAY, WIT, CTSH, and Tata Consultancy (private). Do you know anything about this phenomena?
(2) Please explain the "tinkering" you did with Stock Analyst?
(3) Let's compare SSGs for WIT in that forum/folder;
(4) Maybe Sally An and Rajiv Roy will share their thoughts and SSGs for any of these companies.
Armin Fields
Sean Pulrang wrote: << I did the ssg in Stock Analyst because I like to tinker a bit, and be more conservative in the historical analysis than Toolkit allows sometimes. >> |
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Armin Fields
check out my SSG blog at
http://arminfields.wordpress.com |
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Sean Pulrang
Cambridge, Massachusetts
http://www.iclub.com
ICLUBcentral
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| 06/04/2007 10:13 AM |
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Hmm.
I'll definitely go back and plug your numbers in to see what I get there. Since StockCentral I find myself doing many more ssg's than I used to, and I think my personal trend has been to mark future growth lower than what the programs come in with. I'll have to work on not over-shooting on the price and PE's more as well. I came across this one only because I was looking back through some of the stock forums for companies that I didn't recognize, and checking to see what looked interesting.
"Tinkering" in Stock Analyst (SA). Well. I have to say that the first ssg program I used was Classic Plus, and then moved on quickly to Stock Analyst for the ability to have multiple copies of the same company open at the same time. What I didn't realize I had fallen in love with until later was the ability to adjust both ends of the historical trend lines on the ssg. I've gotten used to Toolkit; including or omitting various years to get the historical averages to move up or down, but I've always liked the ability in Classic and SA to adjust the starting point of the line manually, and independent of the other end of the trend line.
I'll take a look at doing an SSG for WIT today. My memory is that I looked at that one before, and didn't bother finishing it, but without looking again, I don't recall why. I'll take a swing at it today, and see you there at some point.
And I also have to agree that I'd be interested to see Sally and Rajiv's take on the company. And heck, the industry as well, since it's certainly something new for me. Maybe some of our other luminaries to chip in as well.
Edit around 2:20 on Monday to add a revised .ssg;
I couldn't bring myself to put the low PE in 4B in the teens. I think the PE's are going in a cycle, and won't drop lower (or at least not much lower) than where they are currently. Still ends up in the buy range. |
Attachment: INFY.SSG
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--
Sean Pulrang
Asst. Mgr. Tech Support Dept., ICLUBcentral Inc.
To file a support request, visit: http://www.iclub.com/support |
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Joe Craig
Ellicott City, MD
StockCentral Administrator
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| 06/04/2007 11:44 AM |
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Assuming that I transcribed the numbers correctly, here is the chart with Take Stock's estimates added as another column.
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SEAN
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ARMIN
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Take Stock |
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Future Sales Growth Est
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20.00%
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23.00%
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20% |
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Future EPS Growth Est
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20.00%
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22.00%
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20% |
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Hi PE
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48.8
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33.0
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30 |
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Hi Price
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$182.10
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$133.70
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$111.35 |
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Lo PE
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24.5
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16.6
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15.2 |
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Lo Price
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$36.80
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$24.70
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$22.80 |
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Upside/Downside Ratio
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10.7
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3.3
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3.3 (inverse of risk index) |
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Total Return
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30.4%
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22.5%
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18.3 |
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Price
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$49.25
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$50.15
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$49.79 |
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SSG Date
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5-31-07
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5-22-07
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6-1-2007 |
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Data Source
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S&P
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S&P
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StockCentral |
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Joe |
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Sean Pulrang
Cambridge, Massachusetts
http://www.iclub.com
ICLUBcentral
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| 06/04/2007 2:36 PM |
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SEAN
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ARMIN
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Take Stock |
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Future Sales Growth Est
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20.00%
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23.00%
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20% |
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Future EPS Growth Est
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18.50%
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22.00%
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20% |
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Hi PE
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33.0
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33.0
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30 |
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Hi Price
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$115.5
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$133.70
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$111.35 |
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Lo PE
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22.0
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16.6
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15.2 |
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Lo Price
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$28.3
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$24.70
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$22.80 |
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Upside/Downside Ratio
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3.0
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3.3
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3.3 (inverse of risk index) |
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Total Return
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18.9%
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22.5%
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18.3 |
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Price
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$49.9
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$50.15
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$49.79 |
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SSG Date
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06-04-07
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5-22-07
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6-1-2007 |
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Data Source
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StockCentral |
S&P
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StockCentral |
Joe, hope you don't mind, I posted a slightly revised ssg while you were typing everything up. I've substituted in my newer numbers here. |
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--
Sean Pulrang
Asst. Mgr. Tech Support Dept., ICLUBcentral Inc.
To file a support request, visit: http://www.iclub.com/support |
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Joe Craig
Ellicott City, MD
StockCentral Administrator
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| 06/05/2007 9:22 AM |
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| Not at all! |
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Joe |
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armin fields
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| 06/07/2007 4:26 PM |
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Thanks Joe, for posting the Take Stock (TS) results for INFY.
Even more helpful would be if you shared your own SSG judgments.
When I looked at TS on 4-29, I got a much different picture than you got on 6-1. Then, TS showed a High Price of $73.80 (instead of $111.35) and a Total Return of 6.9% (instead of 18.3%). All that changed when you looked was that another quarter of data had been added (Q4), along with full year 2006, but the judgments remained the same: EPS at 20.00% and Hi PE at 30.0.
The same sort of thing also happened with WIT which I discuss in that forum/folder. In short, the 4-29 TS for WIT showed an 8.0% Total Return whereas the 6-5 version showed a whopping 17.2% Total Return.
Note that both INFY and WIT were a SSG BUY, after Q4 and 2006 data were added, but a SSG DON’T BUY before. Such a dramatic reversal is troubling and suggests to me that TS can be unreliable and untrustworthy.
Could someone who knows what’s going on please explain what’s going on….using actual numbers for INFY and WIT.
Armin Fields
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Armin Fields
check out my SSG blog at
http://arminfields.wordpress.com |
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Joe Craig
Ellicott City, MD
StockCentral Administrator
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| 06/07/2007 4:43 PM |
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"Even more helpful would be if you shared your own SSG judgments."
I haven't studied INFY, so I don't have any judgments to share!  |
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Joe |
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