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Subject: Take Stock's EPS Estimate
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armin fields


01/25/2008 4:22 PM  

For AMD, Take Stock shows an initial EPS growth rate of -14.1%.

Its final EPS growth rate is shown as "NaN%"

What is that supposed to mean?

Armin


Armin Fields
check out my SSG blog at
http://arminfields.wordpress.com

Dave Forgianni


01/28/2008 4:59 PM  
"NaN" means "not a number," which is displays if a value is negative. We'll make it display the actual number even if negative, thanks for letting us know!

Dave Forgianni


02/27/2008 10:44 AM  
Hi Armin,

We have elected, in cases where the growth rate used is negative, to not display the red text as opposed to displaying "NaN". Please let us know if you feel this is not sufficient, thanks!

Dave

armin fields


02/27/2008 9:25 PM  

Hey Dave:

<< We have elected, in cases where the growth rate used is negative, to not display the red text as opposed to displaying "NaN". Please let us know if you feel this is not sufficient, thanks! >>

On 1-28, you wrote that Take Stock would display "the actual number even if negative."

I rechecked AMD: its initial EPS growth rate still shows as -14.1%, but now there is no "NaN" and no final EPS growth rate. Same for CY: still a -10.4% initial EPS growth rate, but now no "NaN" and no final EPS growth rate.

However, DIS still displays -5.55% as its final EPS rate (in red) and FORR still displays -5.46 as its final EPS growth rate (in red). Those two did not show "NaN".

I have two questions and one suggestion:

- It seems that Take Stock is making some distinction between a negative EPS growth rate that it continues to display (DIS & FORR) and a negative EPS growth rate that it now does not display (AMD & CY): could you explain that distinction and the reasons for it?

Another way of expressing this question is: what's the difference between a negative EPS growth rate (shown in red) and "NaN" (that used to be shown in red), and why ever make that distinction?

- I don't understand a negative EPS growth rate at all: is that a real-life concept, do companies actually grow earnings at less than zero percent over a five-year period?

- I suggest that Take Stock always display a final EPS growth rate in numbers, no matter if positive or negative.

Armin

ps: do you know that I cannot bold one word (like my underlining above); if I use bold, everything after in that sentence gets bolded.


Armin Fields
check out my SSG blog at
http://arminfields.wordpress.com

Dave Forgianni


02/28/2008 12:55 PM  


Hi Armin,

"On 1-28, you wrote that Take Stock would display "the actual number even if negative.""

Busted, i did, and as of today it will.

"It seems that Take Stock is making some distinction between a negative EPS growth rate that it continues to display (DIS & FORR) and a negative EPS growth rate that it now does not display (AMD & CY): could you explain that distinction and the reasons for it?"

The only time it was not displaying the red text was in the presense of a) use of business model/pref. proc as the lower of the two values to forecast (bus. model vs. hist rates), b) a negative growth rate %, and c) a negative Forecast EPS $ amount.  We have corrected it so that is will now display the growth rate regardless of whether the resultant EPS forecast is a negative $ amount.

"I don't understand a negative EPS growth rate at all: is that a real-life concept, do companies actually grow earnings at less than zero percent over a five-year period?"

I screened using max EPS 5YR growth rate of 5% and it returned 6488/8781 companies, of which 574 had negative 5YR historical EPS growth rates.

"ps: do you know that I cannot bold one word (like my underlining above); if I use bold, everything after in that sentence gets bolded."

What program are you using to compose your messages (e.g. word, email program etc), or are you typing into the online text editor (by clicking the 'add reply/reply/quote links when on the website) and noting this?  I'll try to bold that word and see.  I am using the text editor online.  BUT - because i too have taken too long to type a posting and lost it upon clicking submit (if that ever happens to you, use your browser's back button and then copy/paste your text into notepad/word and try again), i composed my message using Notepad, then clicked the 'add reply' button and quick pasted it into the online text editor and added any desired formatting not possible using notepad.  Lemme know if still questions in this regard or we can discuss off-list, or in a new topic as this is kinda off topic in regard to the topic subject, and could get a little lengthy.

Thanks again for keeping your ever-vigilant eye on our tools, calculations and data and noting problems and offering suggestions!

Dave

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