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Subject: Stock Study Workshop: Infosys by Ralph Seger
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Ralph Seger Jr.


02/25/2008 9:09 AM  

INTRODUCTION

STOCK STUDY WORKSHOP

RALPH SEGER, CFA

 

I  Chose Infosys Technologies Limited (INFY) for several reasons:

  • Growth of sales, pre tax profits and EPS of more than 20% per year
  • A reasonable P/E ratio in view of my judgment as to an appropriate P/E ratio
  • A 30% pre tax profit suggesting ample cash flow to fund future growth.
  • A 30% earned on equity capital and no long-term debt indicating an unleveraged balance sheet that produces outstanding growth
  • International home in India providing International diversification opportunity for a portfolio. Sales of 64% in North America and 26% in Europe.

 

ABOUT THIS COMPANY

Value Line describes INFY as a global technologies firm through majority-owned subsidiaries in Australia, China and in India.   Infosys Consulting Inc. provides solutions that leverage technology for clients across the entire software life cycle:  consulting, design, development, re-engineering, maintenance, systems integration and package implementation. It also provides software products to the banking industry, as well as client business process management services.  INFY has about 72.000 employees. CEO is S. Gopalakishan.  Its address is Electronics City, Hosir Road, Bangalore, Kamatakas 561 229, India.  Telephone (510)770-9393.  Internet: www.infosys.com.

The Investor Advisory Service says that the company believes there are four major trends driving its business: 1) the emergence of developing countries creates new markets and accessible labor, 2) an aging worldwide population encourages companies to tap young and skilled labor, 3) the ongoing rapid adoption of technology changes how consumers and businesses use technology, and 4) regulation is driving greater accountability and transparency.

 

HOW DO THEY MAKE THEIR MONEY

The company has been in the IT services business for 25 years and will produce sales for fiscal 2007, ending in March of 2008, of 4.1 Billion dollars.  According to the IAS, Gartner, a leading research firm, believes that worldwide IT outsourcing IT spending will rise from $193 billion to $260 billion by 2009. Their earnings quality is high.  In order to respond to rapidly changing markets, the company seeks to match its cost to sales wherever possible, leading to excellent service margins and a growth rates slower than revenue for sales, general and administrative spending.

 

GENERAL DISCUSSION

There is probably a recession coming in the US and in Europe which have contributed to a decline in the price of INFY shares providing a good opportunity for long-term investors who follow the guide lines of the late George A. Nicholson, Jr.  It takes a combination of a P/E ratio expansion and growth of EPS to produce a profitable investment.  INFY incorporates both of these fundamentals.   (The price is down from a high of 60 in 2007.) At the recent price of 39.94 the price target is 144 suggesting a total return of 30% a year over a five year period.

 

 My SSG fily for INFY is attached to this message.  Both ITK and SSG files are attached.

 


Attachment: INFY.ITK
Attachment: INFY.SSG


Jerry Durham


02/25/2008 5:06 PM  

I noticed that the projected Lo Price is above the 52 week low. Is it good practice to project a Lo Price that has already been passed on the south side.

Jerry Durham


Bakul Lalla
http://lioe.org

02/25/2008 6:54 PM  

Thanks for taking the time to do this workshop, Ralph.  The founder of Infosys gave a pre-commencement speech in 2007.  Readers would find it interesting to get some background.

Bakul

 


Ralph Seger Jr.


02/28/2008 3:56 PM  

Jerry Durham asks about my selection of a projected low price that is above the 52 week low. Quite frankly I goofed.  Congratulations to Jerry for picking this error up.


Patrick Landers


03/09/2008 8:20 PM  
Hey Ralph,

I have a question about the Avg Low PE from your SSG on INFY. You set that at 20. It's current PE is 18.6. Is there a rule/suggestion about setting the Avg Low PE so that it is lower than it's current level? (Much like making sure the Forecast Low Price is at least 10% lower than the 52 week low price.)

In an environment like we have now where most stock prices are decreasing, and many are at or near their 52 week lows, what is a safe Avg Low PE? Do you ever consider taking the lowest PE listed on PERT B, or does it make sense to use a PE that is 10% below it's lowest level if it is currently at it's all time lowest level? Or is it best to wait for the next quarter reported earnings to see if the PE comes up because EPS have decreased? Or does it not matter to a long term investor as long as you have identified a "Quality" Co at a reasonalbe price?

What does your experience tell you?

Thanks for your insight,
Pat Landers
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