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Subject: Expeditors International, Inc.

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jncraig

09/19/2006 2:01 PM
Expeditors International, Inc., ticker symbol EXPD on the NASDAQ, is a mid-sized company based on FY2005 revenues of $3.902 billion. It is in the Air Freight & Logistics industry. The company was included in the Complete Roster of Quality Companies for July 2006, with a Take Stock Quality Rating of 8.9.

Tami DeAngelis

03/29/2007 6:13 PM
I am taking today's email seriously and just completed this new SSG on an interesting company. I need to do much further research but am wondering if others are looking at this one. Tami
Attachment: EXPD.ITK

Laura Scott
Florida

04/01/2007 4:57 PM
Tami: Why are you using such a high future P/E? I think you had something like 37 in there? That figure needs to be lowered down, preferrably under 30....

Dave Forgianni

04/02/2007 2:45 PM
I noted that the PEG is at 236. I noted somewhere else someone mention that over 150 or so is getting high. Do you have thoughts on that? Thanks! dave

Patrick Landers

04/02/2007 10:26 PM
Hey Dave, If you compare the current PE with last years earnings growth, the PEG is much more sane. The rate of earnings increase (from Pert A) was 37% making the PEG 105. The PE has been steadily increasing for the past number of years (Pert B) and actually peaked last year at 54 for the high and 31 for the low. Investors must believe that the companies earnings will continue at a high pace. I am not able to open the above SSG on EXPD, but do have it on my watch list. I got a "second opinion" on my SSG from Value Line. They are predicting earnings of $2.25 out to 10-12.That is a 16% yearly increase. They are also predicting a high PE of 35.5, a low PE of 24.5, and an average PE of 30. Using those numbers, the forward looking PEG is 1.88. (That is using the average PE; with it's current PE, the PEG is close to the number you posted.) Obviously for the PEG to get to 150, the earnings rate will need to increase faster than VL predicts, or the PE will need to come down. My bet is that the PE comes back down. Pat Landers

armin fields

04/03/2007 6:31 PM
Hi Tami: I don't think your projected P/Es are too high. Using Hemscott or OPS data, EXPD shows rising High and Low PE trends for the last 5 years and you projected less than the historical 5 year average. Another way I judge the reasonableness of a SSG to compare its Forecast High Price with VL's. Here, VL is estimating $55-80 in the next 3-5 years while you forecast $79.00. For your Projected PEs, you used the median High and Low PEs for the past 10 years which is one of the TK5 choices. The most conservative choice is usually the Alt-M command which eliminates the 5 highest PEs and averages the rest. Alt-M with Hemscott data still results in a SSG Hold as you and I got with different judgments. I did not follow the TK5 suggestion in its judgment audit to limit my High PE to 150% of my projected EPS growth rate and my Low PE to 100%. That was way too conservative and unreasonably low for me. Appearantly that was also way too conservative for TakeStock Online which, like TK5, also was developed by Ellis Traub. TakeStock used a Forecast High PE of 30 and a 7.9% forecast EPS growth rate which is 380 times its projected EPS growth or a Hi PEG of 3.80. Cy Lynch makes a good point in his recent article in the 5-07 issue of Better Investing magazine: "...it's a bad idea to use one-size-fits-all P/E-to-growth-rate, or PEG, ratios." I've been saying that for years and years. Armin Fields

Armin Fields check out my SSG blog at http://arminfields.wordpress.com

Dave Forgianni

04/04/2007 12:15 PM
Hi Pat and Armin, pat said: >If you compare the current PE with last years earnings growth, the PEG is much more sane. The rate of earnings increase (from Pert A) was 37% making the >PEG 105. The PE has been steadily increasing for the past number of years (Pert B) and actually peaked last year at 54 for the high and 31 for the low. armin said: >"...it's a bad idea to use one-size-fits-all P/E-to-growth-rate, or PEG, ratios." Thanks for you insights! dave

Laura Scott
Florida

04/26/2007 5:35 PM
So now what - it dumped 18% the other day. Is this a buying opportunity?

Dan Hess

04/26/2007 9:10 PM
Laura So now what - it dumped 18% the other day. Is this a buying opportunity? I think you intended to say this about Corporate Executive Board EXBD and not EXPD. I do not know about others but I viewed it as buying opportunity and bought some EXBD. I have long viewed EXBD as a good company but always found it to be overpriced. With the recent drops it reached a level I viewed worthy of buying. Of course you need to have a longer range view that EXBD will be able to correct its recent problems and also have a lot of patience while waiting for this recovery. Dan Hess .

Kathleen Gallivan

04/26/2007 9:13 PM
> it dumped 18% the other day.< Laura, I suspect you're looking at EXBD - Corporate Executive Board - rather than EXPD - Expediter's International. It's still a good question, though. I guess Doug Gerlach would be the one to ask, since he picked the stock for his contest portfolio.

Kathleen

Laura Scott
Florida

05/01/2007 9:37 PM
Oops - my bad. You both are right - thanks Kathleen and Dan. I got my alphabet mixed up. I did mean EXBD, but was thinking it was EXPD. WHEW! I need to double check that stuff before I buy it next time...LOL

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