I'm sorry I sold my EMR - it has done very well and continues to climb....

Laura

Attached is my SSG for EMR dated 2/08. I used 5% growth for estimates and this gave me an UD of 2/1 (hold).

(1) Most analysts are estimating long-term EPS at 12-13%: Value Line is low at 8.5%, Reuters is 12.57%, Reuters less 1 Standard Deviation is 10.58%, Thomson/ First Call via Yahoo is 12.8%, Zacks via  Money MSN and FactSet Call Street via CNN Money are both 13.00%, and S&P is high at 14.5%.

Here, Danny’s 5.00% EPS estimate is low, Karen used 8.00%, and my 9.00% is high but still lower than Reuters less 1 Standard Deviation.

Surveying the analysts, I find, puts our EPS estimates in perspective.  Take Stock’s 1.31% EPS growth for the next 5 years is implausibly low and seems nuts.

(2) Karen’s $109.10 High Price is $24.10 or 28% per share higher than the high end of VL’s Estimated High Price.  Take Stock’s $58.78 High Price is $26.22 or 31% per share lower than VL.  Danny’s $74.30 is within but at the low end VL’s range.  My $86.50 High Price exceeds VL by $1.50 or less than 2% per share.

Only Karen's SSG satisfies the SSG Buy criteria of at least a 15% Total Return and a 3.0 Upside/Downside Ratio.

(3) The S&P and Hemscott data are in close agreement, but the real surprise is that Danny’s ROE of 19.6% is different from Take Stock’s ROE of 21.5% even though both used Hemscott data (what’s that about?)

Armin

Ps: I’m not sure if Joe Craig wants all Street Teamers to take a blood oath each week or contribute a post each week.  To be sure, I’m doing both:

“Boil and blood, blood and boil, make Joe Craig keep score according to Hoyle.”

Armin thanks for the table this is a great look at studies.

Here, Danny’s 5.00% EPS estimate is low, Karen used 8.00%, and my 9.00% is high but still lower than Reuters less 1 Standard Deviation.

I did not take any outliers out like the years 2001-2003

Surveying the analysts, I find, puts our EPS estimates in perspective.  Take Stock’s 1.31% EPS growth for the next 5 years is implausibly low and seems nuts.

Sometimes I think Takestock would rather see invetors in cash at all times

(2) Karen’s $109.10 High Price is $24.10 or 28% per share higher than the high end of VL’s Estimated High Price.  Take Stock’s $58.78 High Price is $26.22 or 31% per share lower than VL.  Danny’s $74.30 is within but at the low end VL’s range.  My $86.50 High Price exceeds VL by $1.50 or less than 2% per share.

Only Karen's SSG satisfies the SSG Buy criteria of at least a 15% Total return and 1 3.0 Upside/Doenside Ratio.

(3) The S&P and Hemscott data are in close agreement, but the real surprise is that Danny’s ROE of 19.6% is different from Take Stock’s ROE of 21.5% even though both used Hemscott data (what’s that about?)

Remember their nuts!

Thanks Danny for your SSG and thank you Armin for your table and post and comments.  Hmm.  Well.  What a difference a little judgement makes in your returns, huh?   I really like this stock, and I have since bought more (after selling a year or so ago from my earlier post).  I don't have my current SSG to post, but will try and get it here later on.  Thanks again for your comments on this stock - it helps to think/walk it through with others.

Laura

Armin thanks for your summary, it really does help to put things in perspective.

Our chapter developed a worksheet for this very purpose that some of you might find useful.  I've attached it below.   You can change the analysts at the top to comply with those that you use.   The grades along the side are mine and they are  SER-Sxhwab Equity Research  SG Stock Grader from Barrons, ME is Market Edge MIPar and RQR from Manifest and MSN, CAPS andn DCF is Discounted Cash flow. 

To your research, I'll add S&p with EPS growth of 12.0, MStar of 11.0 Goldman Sacks of 13.0, EMR Mgt 13.0

Thanks for posting the summary.

Karen

Forgot to mention the gray shaded area is interactive and will calculate the average if you complete the form while online.

Karen

Bleeding is good.  Posting is even better!

Karen:

Armin - what a good idea to post the calibration worksheet for EMR (now why didn't I think of that? )

I'll post responses to your message - again in sections as my posts time out if I try to do too much in one.

Your asked about sales growth estimates - I use Zacks, Yahoo and MStar - they all three give estimates for sales growth, though MStar is through the premium site.    TSC is The Street.com and sometimes but not always has some interesting info on a company.   In the Zack's colum I fill in the eps and sales growth rates, the Target Price and the Overall Recommendation.  I access the Zacks site through the "Research" line on the Stock Central home page.

More later.

Karen

The S&P datafile I used from Better Investing had an S&P EPS estimate of 14.5% (not 12.0). And, MStar shows an EPS estimate of 12.6% (not 11.0) and says it is from Reuters…..which agrees with the 12.57% estimate I got from Reuters.

The MStar information I get - its under the "Valuation" paragraph says "---will result in eps growth of 11% to 12% over the next five years."  I used the more conservative of the two for the 11%.  I'm wondering if the difference between what you see and the one I get is the timeing.  The report I'm reading is dated 02/06/08.  I also note that MStar cut their estimate by $2/share to account for the underfunded pension plan obligations and for stock options.  This could account for the differnce too.

When I pulled the most recent 02/16/08 S&P report they show expected sales of 10% in '08 and 8% in '09.  Also they are projecting EPS growthy of 13% in '08 and 12% in '09.  Again I used the more conservative of the two eps numbers. 

The 13% eps growth figure from EMR management comes from their quarterly conference call.   A good place to go for this is Seeking Alpha - if you plug in the ticker you'll find a link to the more recent conference call along the left hand side.  This is a blog site, but it is a good one, with info. that I don't find elsewhere. 

Karen

Sorry for the blue lettering in the last post.  I tried to differentiate between your post and mine - guess it didn't turn out too welll.    :) 

I've attached a copy of my Calibration sheet for EMR.   I notice that the calculaltions aren't calibrating for the Avg column.   Its because I have made changes to the form.   You can download the original form at this link http://www.rmchapter.org/workshop/index.html#agenda   to our chapter website. 

Good Luck and Better Investing.

Karen

Hey Karen:

You know, I think, that the numbers you cite are not estimates for the next 5 years. In the 12-16-08 S&P Stock Report, I found some different numbers:

- "we forecast that EPS will grow…about 10% to 15% annually." [no time frame specified]

You're right Armin - the numbers I quoted are for '08 and '09.  I do like using the shorter term rates, as I believe them to be more accurate than something 5 years out.  A lot can happen to a company in 5 years. Also, the company itself seldom gives guidance for more than 2 years out and who knows a company better than its own management.   I  do reevaluate every 6 months or so and if estimates change, its easy to make the change on the SSG.

I'd be interested in what others do with this.

Karen