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Join in on the discussion with other like-minded investors in our community forums. Learn about the fundamental investing methodology and participate in educational workshops in the Investing forums, stay up-to-date on StockCentral news and make suggestions to the StockCentral team in Central Square, and discuss your favorite stock or recent market news in our A-Z ticker-based forums.
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| Author |
Messages |
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carol lyle
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| 11/07/2007 12:49 PM |
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I just checked some of the roster TS online qualities with my TS 4 version
and found some very different quality ratings.
What would cause such a wide quality variation in what I thought were
relatively similar programs? Here is a list of several stocks where I found
those discrepancies.
Thanks for your answers. Carol Lyle
TK online TK desktop
ACH 8.4 3.2
ALJ 9.5 too young
BHP 6.3 too small
BNS 5.8 too young
CACB 9.5 3.2
CEO 8.4 2.1
DNA 10 3.2
HOG 5.8 2.6
ITU 6.8 2.1
LOGI 8.9 3.2
RIO 8.9 3.2 |
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 Doug Gerlach Cambridge, MA http://www.iclub.com/ President, ICLUBcentral
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| 11/07/2007 1:28 PM |
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The discrepancies come from the different data sources, as well as the dates of the most recent final data, that are used in the programs. At some point, we'll possibly change the ICLUB Take Stock to use the StockCentral data instead of S&P, and that ought to bring the results closer together. Doug |
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Posting from ICLUBcentral world headquarters in the Harvard Square's historic College House, Cambridge, MA
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 Ellis Traub Davie, Florida www.financialiteracy.us ICLUBcentral
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| 11/07/2007 2:39 PM |
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Carol, et al:
At 12:49 PM 11/7/2007, you wrote:
I just checked some of the roster TS online qualities with my TS 4 version
and found some very different quality ratings.
What would cause such a wide quality variation in what I thought were
relatively similar programs? Here is a list of several stocks where I found
those discrepancies....
The issue is this: the source of data from which the original Complete Roster
of Quality Companies is harvested has been OPS/SDS from BI until this issue.
While the same algorithms are used to provide the judgmental decisions that
are made (and parallel those in the Take Stock programs, whether desktop
or on-line) and from which the Quality Indices are constructed, the differences
in the actual data will cause different conclusions to be drawn.
This month, for the first time, the StockCentral (Hemscott) data was used to
create the Complete Roster. And, when you run your Take Stock programs
that still use the OPS data, the results are going to highlight the differences
in the data.
I have nearly completed a thorough study of the various sources of electronic
data and will soon publish it. The result of that study shows that the number
of discrepancies to be found in each source (Reuters, Compustat, and Hemscott)
appear to be fairly evenly divided amongst all three. Just because we happen
to have "grown into" believing that the Compustat data is the "gold standard"
doesn't necessarily mean that it is always right and the other sources always
wrong. Quite the contrary. All are "right" most of the time.
As I will explain in my report, there are a number of levels at which the data
can be in error, beginning with simple typos, which are to be found in all of
the sources from time to time, to differences in the number of years/quarters
of data that are provided (some providers, for example, will restate data
when there is a merger while others may not even offer the data prior to
that happening). Some providers use the leeway provided by the GAAP
standards to modify the data to benefit their clients; i.e., will remove the
non-recurring or extraordinary data to please analysts, while another source
will provide the most painstakingly accurate historical data to please their
accountant clientele. Some of the providers will put unusual data in footnotes
while others will insist on retaining it in the tabulations. Some providers take
pains to dredge the footnotes for the unusual data, and then eliminate it in
their normalizing process, while others don't do either.
All of these results are "right," even though they are different. After the data
leaves the source providers, there are also differences between StockCentral,
BI, and AAII, when it comes to the data they select to populate the individual
line items we require. Again, these represent differences of opinion as to what
data is more appropriate to publish. As an example, there are those who think
that the pre-tax profit should be normalized, while others reserve normalized
results for the Earnings per Share.
Each of these differences that are found at different steps in the process of
producing usable data can cause a difference in the end result. And, because
the Quality Index is a compounded result of all of those differences coming
together at one point, those differences are magnified as the results emanate
from the different sources.
Should the BI data continue to be used for the roster, then the results you
arrive at using the Take Stock versions that use OPS data will match up; and
you will be content. Or, when the Roster derived from StockCentral data is
analyzed using the on-line version of Take Stock, the same result will occur.
It's only when you mix the data from this Roster and the later analysis, that
you find those disconcerting differences. Or, you use StockCentral's screener
to collect all those with an acceptable or desirable Quality Index (which is, in
essence, the same process as the Complete Roster uses) and then use the
desktop versions of Take Stock to analyze them that you find such differences.
And it was just this set of circumstances that motivated me to commence this
study.
I will make every effort to get this completed and available for publication as
soon as possible. I've had a number of things that have drawn my attention
away from this effort in recent weeks; but those have pretty well subsided
now and I can go back to work on it.
For the time being, I would suggest that you try to use only those companies
in the Roster or the StockCentral screens that agree in their Quality Indices
no matter which version of Take Stock you use. That way, no differences in
the data will affect the outcome and you can have double the confidence in
the result.
ET
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Ellis Traub |
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carol lyle
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| 11/07/2007 3:07 PM |
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Thanks for your answer, Doug. That does seem
to answer my question yet I'm still surprised that the data sources would have
such conflicting results. Carol
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Wednesday, November 07, 2007 1:28
PM
Subject: [The Toolshed]: RE: Take Stock
online vs. Take Stock desktop (55fc04bd-0824-409b-9ce2-2552553841ca)
From the The Toolshed forum at StockCentral.com, Doug Gerlach
writes:
The discrepancies come from the different data sources, as
well as the dates of the most recent final data, that are used in the
programs. At some point, we'll possibly change the ICLUB Take Stock to use the
StockCentral data instead of S&P, and that ought to bring the results
closer together.
Doug
---------- Posted by: Doug Gerlach
---------- To view the complete topic, reply, or unsubscribe to
this topic please visit: http://www.stockcentral.com/community/tabid/143/view/topic/postid/4288/ptarget/4289/language/en-US/Default.aspx
No virus found in this incoming message. Checked by AVG Free
Edition. Version: 7.5.503 / Virus Database: 269.15.24/1115 - Release Date:
11/7/2007 9:21 AM
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carol lyle
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| 11/07/2007 4:26 PM |
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Thank you, thank you, Ellis! Your complete
explanation is most helpful.
Your final paragraph actually helped my
confidence level since that is exactly what I've ended up doing.
Figuring there are many better minds than mine working on stocks these
days...I selected stocks with the highest qualities in the roster that
agreed with both Take Stock programs and then also checked them against ratings
in Manifest Investing and 4 or 5 stars in Morningstar and Standard and
Poors. That helps me feel pretty confident in my decisions.
Learning slowly but surely,
Carol
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Wednesday, November 07, 2007 2:39
PM
Subject: [The Toolshed]: RE: Take Stock
online vs. Take Stock desktop (55fc04bd-0824-409b-9ce2-2552553841ca)
From the The Toolshed forum at StockCentral.com, Ellis Traub
writes:
Carol, et al:
At 12:49 PM 11/7/2007, you
wrote:
I just checked some of the roster
TS online qualities with my TS 4 version and found some very different
quality ratings. What would cause such a wide quality variation in what I
thought were relatively similar programs? Here is a list of
several stocks where I found those discrepancies....
The issue is this: the source of data from which the
original Complete Roster of Quality Companies is harvested has been OPS/SDS
from BI�until this issue. While the same algorithms are used to provide the
judgmental decisions that are made (and parallel those in the Take Stock
programs, whether desktop or on-line) and from which the Quality Indices
are constructed, the differences in the actual data will cause different
conclusions to be drawn.
This month, for the first time, the
StockCentral (Hemscott) data was used to create the Complete Roster. And,
when you run your Take Stock programs that still use the OPS data, the
results are going to highlight the differences in the data.
I have
nearly completed a thorough study of the various sources of electronic data
and will soon publish it. The result of that study shows that the number of
discrepancies to be found in each source (Reuters, Compustat, and
Hemscott) appear to be fairly evenly divided amongst all three. Just
because we happen to have "grown into" believing that the Compustat data is
the "gold standard" doesn't necessarily mean that it is always right and
the other sources always wrong. Quite the contrary. All are "right" most of
the time.
As I will explain in my report, there are a number of levels
at which the data can be in error, beginning with simple typos, which are
to be found in all of the sources from time to time, to differences in the
number of years/quarters of data that are provided (some providers, for
example, will restate data when there is a merger while others may not
even offer the data prior to that happening). Some providers use the
leeway provided by the GAAP standards to modify the data to benefit their
clients; i.e., will remove the non-recurring or extraordinary data to
please analysts, while another source will provide the most painstakingly
accurate historical data to please their accountant clientele. Some of the
providers will put unusual data in footnotes while others will insist on
retaining it in the tabulations. Some providers take pains to dredge the
footnotes for the unusual data, and then eliminate it in their normalizing
process, while others don't do either.
All of these results are
"right," even though they are different. After the data leaves the source
providers, there are also differences between StockCentral, BI, and AAII,
when it comes to the data they select to populate the individual line
items we require. Again, these represent differences of opinion as to
what data is more appropriate to publish. As an example, there are those
who think that the pre-tax profit should be normalized, while others
reserve normalized results for the Earnings per Share.
Each of
these differences that are found at different steps in the process
of producing usable data can cause a difference in the end result. And,
because the Quality Index is a compounded result of all of those
differences coming together at one point, those differences are magnified
as the results emanate from the different sources.
Should the BI
data continue to be used for the roster, then the results you arrive at
using the Take Stock versions that use OPS data will match up; and you will
be content. Or, when the Roster derived from StockCentral data is analyzed
using the on-line version of Take Stock, the same result will
occur.
It's only when you mix the data from this Roster and the later
analysis, that you find those disconcerting differences. Or, you use
StockCentral's screener to collect all those with an acceptable or
desirable Quality Index (which is, in essence, the same process as the
Complete Roster uses) and then use the desktop versions of Take Stock to
analyze them that you find such differences. And it was just this set of
circumstances that motivated me to commence this study.
I will
make every effort to get this completed and available for publication
as soon as possible. I've had a number of things that have drawn my
attention away from this effort in recent weeks; but those have pretty well
subsided now and I can go back to work on it.
For the time being,
I would suggest that you try to use only those companies in the Roster or
the StockCentral screens that agree in their Quality Indices no matter
which version of Take Stock you use. That way, no differences in the data
will affect the outcome and you can have double the confidence in the
result.
ET
---------- Posted by: Ellis Traub
---------- To view the complete topic, reply, or unsubscribe to
this topic please visit: http://www.stockcentral.com/community/tabid/143/view/topic/postid/4288/ptarget/4291/language/en-US/Default.aspx
No virus found in this incoming message. Checked by AVG Free
Edition. Version: 7.5.503 / Virus Database: 269.15.24/1115 - Release Date:
11/7/2007 9:21 AM
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