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Subject: A Questionable Response
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Larry Wiener


01/04/2007 3:54 PM  
As a new member of this group, I thought I would try out the analysis program on a stock of current interest: Stratasys (which was an Investor Advisory Service recommendation in December 2006).   Strangely, a statement on one of the pages read as follows:  "The minimum sales or earnings growth rate for a company of this size should be about 15.1%; 20.1016767485214% is desirable."  That response makes little or no sense, and at the least cannot be justified mathematically.

I think that you would be well advised to have someone with a quantitative background check over some of your methods.

LARRY WIENER

sally an

ICLUBcentral, Inc.

01/04/2007 5:53 PM  
thank you for report this problem in takestock beta release, we will look into it and fix the bug shortly.

ICLUBcentral Software Engineer

sally an

ICLUBcentral, Inc.

01/04/2007 6:07 PM  
Larry,

Here is the explaination for the response you saw in growth page of takestock on ticker SSYS:

This company is a small company (TTM sales <400), so the minimum growth rate and desired growth rate are calculated based on TTM sales. The number is correct, but obviously the number needs to be rounded, we'll fix it shortly.

If you need further information please feel free to post more on this thread.

Thank you very much.

ICLUBcentral Software Engineer

Joe Craig
Ellicott City, MD
StockCentral Administrator

01/04/2007 7:03 PM  
Larry,

You said: I think that you would be well advised to have someone with a quantitative background check over some of your methods.

I can't tell if you are referring simply to the number formatting error, or to a more general objection to Take Stock's methods. If it's the latter, could you expand on the comment a little? It is my impresssion that Take Stock is a pretty faithful implementation of the approach that Ellis Traub described in his Take Stock book. If you like, I can ask Ellis to comment on the approach and the judgments made by Take Stock.

Either way, thanks for the comment. It certainly will lead to a better product.

Joe

Larry Wiener


01/05/2007 3:43 PM  
Sally and Joe:  No, it was my response to the program's presenting numbers that didn't make any sense.  I presume that the program followed
Ellis's methods, but it was the presentation of the computed data that I objected to.  Things that catch my attention include the use of too many significant figures in presenting computed results, erroneous interpretation of data, and incorrect application of the term "law of large numbers."

Larry Wiener

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