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Subject: ELN

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Simon Chouldjian

11/23/2006 12:18 PM
ELN is an Irish Biotech/Pharmaceutical company with about $500 million in annual sales, $1 billion in cash and $2 Billion in debt. They are currently losing money but should turn profitable next year (my estimate) based on a newly released drug (Tysabry) which I believe will become the "gold standard" for MS in the future. They also have a great Nanotechnology business which they use to reformulate existing drugs. The reformulated drugs result in greater efficacy, reduced side-effects, and an extension in patent life. They have reformulated drugs for Novartis, Merck, Abbot and others. They also have a great Alzheimer's Disease pipeline in various phases of clinical trials. Since 3/31/2006, Fidelity has increased its shareholdings in ELN from approximately 23 million shares to 65.66 million shares. ELN is the largest holding in my portfolio and I follow it very closely. If anyone would like to discuss this issue I would be happy to share my knowledge. Please do your own Due Diligence since I have been known to make mistakes. Best Regards, Simon

Joe Craig
Ellicott City, MD
StockCentral Administrator

11/23/2006 11:08 PM
Thanks! (If you have an SSG analysis, I'd encourage you to attach it to a message in this forum.)

Joe

Simon Chouldjian

11/24/2006 1:02 PM
Hello Joe, I have the stock Analyst software and I can get the data from Better Investing. However, I don't know how to attach the SSG to this reply. In the case of ELN, I am betting that Tysabri will take more than 50% of the market at peak sales and that ELN's Alzheimer's pipeline achieves success. It is a bet on the future, not the past. Currently ELN is losing money. Unless Tysabri sales increase substantially, they will probably lose money next year as well. My bet is that Tysabri sales will increase substantially next year because I believe Tysabri to be the "best of class" in the drugs for MS space. Best Regards, Simon

Joe Craig
Ellicott City, MD
StockCentral Administrator

11/24/2006 11:42 PM
From within Stock Analyst you'll need to "export" your ELN data and save it as an SSG file to your computer's hard disk. Then, write a message to this forum. When you are writing, look for the button to attach a file at the bottom of the editing window. Click "browse" and find the SSG file. Then, upload it and finish the message. You'll need to be "replying" or "quoting" to use the attach function.

Joe

Guy Werner

02/13/2007 4:39 PM
Posted By Simon Chouldjian on 11/23/2006 12:18 PM ELN is an Irish Biotech/Pharmaceutical company with about $500 million in annual sales, $1 billion in cash and $2 Billion in debt. They are currently losing money but should turn profitable next year (my estimate) based on a newly released drug (Tysabry) which I believe will become the "gold standard" for MS in the future. They also have a great Nanotechnology business which they use to reformulate existing drugs. The reformulated drugs result in greater efficacy, reduced side-effects, and an extension in patent life. They have reformulated drugs for Novartis, Merck, Abbot and others. They also have a great Alzheimer's Disease pipeline in various phases of clinical trials. Since 3/31/2006, Fidelity has increased its shareholdings in ELN from approximately 23 million shares to 65.66 million shares. ELN is the largest holding in my portfolio and I follow it very closely. If anyone would like to discuss this issue I would be happy to share my knowledge. Please do your own Due Diligence since I have been known to make mistakes. Best Regards, Simon

Simon Chouldjian

02/13/2007 7:12 PM
Hello Guy, Did you have a question or an opinion regarding ELN? Best Regards, Simon

Joe Craig
Ellicott City, MD
StockCentral Administrator

02/13/2007 7:58 PM
I wouldn't recommend investing in a company that can't grow sales and can't make a profit on the sales that it has ...

Joe

armin fields

02/13/2007 9:10 PM
I don't follow ELN, but began this reply wanting to post a SSG in order to stimulate discussion of the company. I conclude that a SSG is not possible, certainly not one reasoned from its historical record, because ELN has had: - negative EPS for the past 4 years; - a negative or zero EPS growth rate for the past 9 years; - a negative Sales growth rate for 7 of the last 8 years and 1.6% Sales growth for 2005; and - no meaningful PEs (NMFs) for the past 4 years (2002-2005). Very few analysts follow ELN: 1 from First Call (16.60% est EPS next 5 years), 1 from Zacks (13.52%), and 2 from Reuters (15.72% average, 16.57% hi and 15.00% lo). Even if I chose an unbelievable 200.00% EPS growth for a SSG, my TK5 projects only $0.24 EPS in the next 5 years. Here's hoping that Simon and Guy have something positive to say about their SSGs. Armin Fields

Armin Fields check out my SSG blog at http://arminfields.wordpress.com

Simon Chouldjian

02/14/2007 11:16 AM
Hello Joe, You wrote" I don't blame you. Your investing style essentially weeds out companies who are making large investments into life-changing technologies which could pay off big two, three, or maybe five years into the future. You prefer to do your investing after the company has a proven, multi-year track record. Your method is probably right for you based on your stage in life, age/wealth/career.. etc. However, I am looking for the BIG return in the next five years. I have studied the company and its technologies and believe that ELN is addressing HUGE markets with its development stage drugs pipeline and also addressing a HUGE market with its newly released Tysabry drug for MS. I believe these drugs are and will be "first in class", "life-changing" types and will propel the company's sales over the next five years. At that point an SSG would make sense and bring in the more "solid" investing crowd. I appreciate your point of view. However, I am basing my investment on my ability to make sense of the technology and how that technology will alter peoples' lives. Good luck to you. Best Regards, Simon

Simon Chouldjian

02/14/2007 11:19 AM
Hello Joe, In my above response, I copied and pasted what you wrote (your one sentence). Evidently, the pasted sentence did not show in my submitted response. Best Regards, Simon

Simon Chouldjian

02/14/2007 11:32 AM
Hello Armin, You are right. An SSG is not possible. I "sort of" feel bad for introducing ELN to this forum because it does not fit the investing style followed by the participants. I appologize for this. However, I believe ELN will show tremendouse sales growth over the next few years and in my estimation will exit this year (2007) at a profitable run rate. I believe this is the time where the big stock gains will be made. BIIB will be having its quarterly CC tomorrow (Thursday). They will at that time announce the first full quarter of sales for the drug, Tysabri which is a 50/50 venture with ELN. I don't expect the first quarter of sales to be very large, but I do expect Tysabri sales to accellerate over the next few quarters. You may want to follow ELN for a while. Best Regards, Simon

Joe Craig
Ellicott City, MD
StockCentral Administrator

02/14/2007 12:31 PM
Your investing style essentially weeds out companies who are making large investments into life-changing technologies which could pay off big two, three, or maybe five years into the future. ... I am looking for the BIG return in the next five years. I have studied the company and its technologies and believe that ELN is addressing HUGE markets with its development stage drugs pipeline and also addressing a HUGE market with its newly released Tysabry drug for MS. ... I am basing my investment on my ability to make sense of the technology and how that technology will alter peoples' lives. Simon, You seem to understand the risk/reward scenario, so putting your money where your mouth is makes sense. I wish you well, too. And, I hope that you'll stick around here can continue to engage in discussions with all of us. For me the biggest issue is "could pay off" which is, of course, true for nearly any investment. I think that we'd probably both agree that investing in a high quality growth company at a good price narrows the odds and that "could" move to "should" and to "will." I'm also fond of Mark Robertson's phrase "expected returns." With a company like ELN, I think that expectations go out the window as there is nothing on which to base the expectation.

Joe

Simon Chouldjian

02/14/2007 1:37 PM
Hello Joe, I think you are right to say that there is nothing to base your expectations for ROI with ELN. I think it is similar to the time when the Radio was invented, in that there was nothing to set the expectations. My expectations are based only on my understanding of Elan's drugs pipeline, newly released drug Tysabri, and the ability of its partners (BIIB for Tysabri and WYE for the Alzheimer's drugs pipeline) to market the drugs as they are approved by the FDA. Best Regards, Simon

Joe Craig
Ellicott City, MD
StockCentral Administrator

02/14/2007 2:04 PM
What other companies strike your fancy?

Joe

Joe Craig
Ellicott City, MD
StockCentral Administrator

02/14/2007 4:02 PM
Simon, Because your followup post referred mostly to WYE, I moved that message over to the WYE forum. I'll answer it there!

Joe

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