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 Joe Craig Ellicott City, MD StockCentral Administrator
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| 10/07/2007 10:46 AM |
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Here is a summary of our five portfolios, with prices as of the end of September. As you can see, Danny Matthews still leads the contest.
Mark Robertson's portfolio deserves few comments. Mark sold AIG in June so that he could short Apple: Mark sold 20 shares of Apple (shares that he did not own). To do that, Mark had to borrow $2645.01, and this is shown as "Margin Cash" in the portfolio. Mark will have to repay this money, with interest, when he closes his short position, and we'll do the accounting for all of that when the position closes. Let's also all hope for both Mark's any my sake that Apples price drops, or I'm also going to have to be watching for conditions under which Mark will face a margin call. I am SOOOO not looking forward to that!
Your questions and comments are welcome. There is also a PDF file attached to this message.
| 25 Stocks to Own in 2007 |
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Prices as of 9/30/2007 |
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Symbol |
Last price |
Qty |
Mkt. val. |
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| Danny Matthews' Portfolio |
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| Bank of America Corporation |
BAC |
$50.27 |
19.393 |
$974.91 |
| Costco Wholesale Corporation |
COST |
$61.37 |
19.052 |
$1,169.21 |
| Exxon Mobil Corporation |
XOM |
$92.56 |
13.216 |
$1,223.29 |
| LifeCell Corporation |
LIFC |
$37.57 |
41.425 |
$1,556.34 |
| Paychex, Inc. |
PAYX |
$41.00 |
25.733 |
$1,055.05 |
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$5,978.80 |
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| Doug Gerlach's Portfolio |
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| American Medical Systems Holdings, Inc. |
AMMD |
$16.95 |
53.996 |
$915.23 |
| CRA International, Inc. |
CRAI |
$48.19 |
19.084 |
$919.66 |
| Hi-Tech Pharmacal Co. |
HITK |
$11.87 |
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| Mobile Mini, Inc. |
MINI |
$24.16 |
34.082 |
$823.41 |
| PetMed Express, Inc. |
PETS |
$14.01 |
74.906 |
$1,049.44 |
| TALX Corporation |
TALX |
$35.95 |
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| The Corporate Executive Board Company |
EXBD |
$74.24 |
16.829 |
$1,249.39 |
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$4,957.13 |
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| Ellis Traub's Portfolio |
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| Knight Transportation |
KNX |
$17.21 |
58.910 |
$1,013.84 |
| Lennar Corporation |
LEN |
$22.65 |
19.295 |
$437.02 |
| Level 3 Communications |
LLL |
$102.14 |
12.327 |
$1,259.13 |
| Lowes |
LOW |
$28.02 |
32.297 |
$904.95 |
| UnitedHealth Group Inc. |
UNH |
$48.43 |
18.622 |
$901.86 |
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$4,516.80 |
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| Mark Robertson's Portfolio |
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| Apple |
AAPL |
$153.47 |
-20.000 |
($3,069.40) |
| AIG-AMERIC. INT. GRP |
AIG |
$67.65 |
0.000 |
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| Apollo Investment |
AINV |
$20.80 |
43.993 |
$915.05 |
| Home Depot |
HD |
$32.44 |
25.347 |
$822.25 |
| Linear Technology Corporation |
LLTC |
$34.99 |
33.501 |
$1,172.18 |
| The Corporate Executive Board Company |
EXBD |
$74.24 |
0.000 |
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| Vanguard Growth ETF |
VUG |
$64.75 |
0.000 |
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| Walgreen Company |
WAG |
$47.24 |
21.914 |
$1,035.22 |
| Cash ($) |
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$1,041.42 |
| Margin Cash ($) |
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$2,645.01 |
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$4,561.73 |
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| Ralph Seger's Portfolio |
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| Amgen, Inc. |
AMGN |
$56.57 |
14.639 |
$828.14 |
| Caremark Rx, Inc. |
CMX |
$58.35 |
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| Fastenal Company |
FAST |
$45.41 |
27.442 |
$1,246.12 |
| Level 3 Communications |
LLL |
$102.14 |
12.327 |
$1,259.13 |
| Lowes |
LOW |
$28.02 |
32.297 |
$904.95 |
| Quality Systems, Inc. |
QSII |
$36.63 |
27.663 |
$1,013.28 |
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$5,251.62 |
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Attachment: 25Stocks-ThirdQuarter.pdf
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Joe |
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 Danny Matthews
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| 10/07/2007 2:51 PM |
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Mark sold 20 shares of Apple (shares that he did not own). To do that, Mark had to borrow $2645.01, and this is shown as "Margin Cash" in the portfolio.
Please explain the process. When did margin accounts start? Don't investors lose their capital gains break when they are trading their account on margin? |
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Danny Matthews Tuscola IL |
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 Danny Matthews
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 Danny Matthews
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| 10/22/2007 6:38 PM |
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do you have the worksheet that shows returns for the five portfolios? |
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Danny Matthews Tuscola IL |
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 Jim Thomas
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| 11/25/2007 2:25 PM |
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Joe, please clarify how you see the following situation ...
> [On 7/5/2007] Mark sold AIG in June so that he could short Apple: Mark sold 20 shares of Apple (shares that he did not own). To do that, Mark had to borrow $2645.01, and this is shown as "Margin Cash" in the portfolio. Mark will have to repay this money, with interest, when he closes his short position, and we'll do the accounting for all of that when the position closes. <
It's been nearly 6 months since Mark shorted AAPL. I think it's past time to (1) start accounting for margin interest and (2) define the circumstances that would trigger a margin call.
At Nov 23rd closing prices, the value of the four long positions in the portfolio ($3,422) are now less than the value of the short position in AAPL (-$3,431). The total portfolio value is $3,678, of which $2,645 (71.9%) is borrowed. That's getting very close to triggering (what I think is) a 25% maintenance requirement for a margin call.
In fact, looking back, I see now that with Nov 7th closing prices the total portfolio value was $3,436 (including the margin interest that should have already been paid would further reduce this value). That makes the borrowed $2,645 equal to 77% of the total portfolio value. It seems to me that should have triggered a margin call based on a 25% maintenance requirement. Presumably, since the rules of the contest don't allow adding more cash, that would have forced the sale of some of the long positions.
-Jim Thomas |
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 Jim Thomas
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| 12/05/2007 9:41 AM |
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> At Nov 23rd closing prices ... The total portfolio value is $3,678, of which $2,645 (71.9%) is borrowed. That's getting very close to triggering (what I think is) a 25% maintenance requirement for a margin call. <
The amount of the portfolio value that's borrowed has been above 75% evey day since 11/27. Currently (12/4 closing prices), 78% of the portfolio value is borrowed. Seems past time for a margin call to me.
-Jim Thomas |
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 Danny Matthews
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| 12/05/2007 10:58 AM |
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Seems past time for a margin call to me.
-Jim Thomas
Me too, please explain the process as I have no clue to the workings of shorting stocks, put calls, naked shorts or whatever those transactions accomplish. Are these more useful to traders vs long term investors? Also is there a worksheet that shows YTD returns? |
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Danny Matthews Tuscola IL |
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 Jim Thomas
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| 12/05/2007 1:30 PM |
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> please explain the process as I have no clue to the workings of shorting stocks < I don't have a great grasp of the rules for shorting stocks and margin calls. I'm not even certain that I'm calculating margin percentage in the appropriate way to determine what would trigger a margin call. That's why I asked Joe to clarify how he sees the situation (since he's in charge of defining the contest rules). -Jim Thomas |
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 Jim Thomas
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| 12/05/2007 2:04 PM |
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> Also is there a worksheet that shows YTD returns? <
Joe keeps the official records for the contest.
However I track the portfolios too (and Joe and I compare notes from time to time). I update http://www.bivio.com/irw/files/PublicFiles/StockCentral/scOverview.xls generally every weekend. This shows a week-by-week graph of % appreciation in portfolio value. For comparison, it also shows % appreciation in VTSMX and a "15% return" line.
At present, Danny, your portfolio is the only one of the five that hasn't lost money since the beginning of the contest.
-Jim Thomas |
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 Danny Matthews
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| 12/05/2007 2:13 PM |
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Thanks Jim that's what I was wondering about my total return. this includes dividends, correct? |
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Danny Matthews Tuscola IL |
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 Jim Thomas
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| 12/05/2007 3:21 PM |
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Yes, it includes reinvested dividends. At Nov 30th closing prices, your portfolio was worth $6,048, or 21% more than the $5,000 you started with. 21% is the value that's shown on the graph in the spreadsheet I refered to. Just to be clear, the 21% isn't an annualized rate of return. It's just the percentage change from the $5,000 that everyone started with.
-Jim Thomas |

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 Jim Thomas
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| 12/05/2007 8:46 PM |
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> I think it's past time to (1) start accounting for margin interest and (2) define the circumstances that would trigger a margin call. < I still think the above is true. > At Nov 23rd closing prices ... The total portfolio value is $3,678, of which $2,645 (71.9%) is borrowed. That's getting very close to triggering (what I think is) a 25% maintenance requirement for a margin call. < I've been doing some reading and the above is not the correct way to calculate the margin maintenance requirement for a short sale. The actual rule is to maintain equity in the account (total portfolio value) equal to at least 25% of the market value of the shorted stock. In other words, to maintain at least 25% *more* value in cash and long positions than would be needed to cover the short position (i.e., purchase the short stock at current market value by selling, as needed, long positions to raise cash). 25% is a *minimum* and individual brokers are free to establish their own higher minimums. Apparently 30% to 40% isn't uncommon. Establishing an appropriate margin maintenance percentage would be part of defining the criteria for a margin call in this contest. At Dec 5th closing prices the total portfolio value (equity) is $3,336 while the market value of the shorted AAPL stock is $3,710. $3,336 is quite a bit more than 25% of $3,710 ($928) , so a margin call is not at all imminent. Even at 40%, the minimum equity would be $1,484. -Jim Thomas |
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faith fessenden
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| 12/05/2007 8:49 PM |
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"It's been nearly 6 months since Mark shorted AAPL"
hmmm....I was under the impression that this contest was to employ our tried and true principles..........
"short selling"??????
by the looks of the graph the only "shorting" result I see is Mark's portfolio taking a long walk off of a "short" pier.
Go Danny!!
faith f.
reno, nv |
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 Danny Matthews
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| 12/05/2007 9:40 PM |
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Establishing an appropriate margin maintenance percentage would be part of defining the criteria for a margin call in this contest.
-Jim Thomas
Thanks for the explanation Jim. Trading shorts, calls , puts is way beyond my expertise...I mean way! Much info, now my shorts are in a knot!!! 
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Danny Matthews Tuscola IL |
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