Subject: 25 Top Stock Picks for 2007 and Beyond: Third Quarter Update
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Joe Craig
Ellicott City, MD
StockCentral Administrator

10/07/2007 10:46 AM  
Here is a summary of our five portfolios, with prices as of the end of September.  As you can see, Danny Matthews still leads the contest.

Mark Robertson's portfolio deserves few comments.  Mark sold AIG in June so that he could short Apple: Mark  sold 20 shares of Apple (shares that he did not own).  To do that, Mark had to borrow $2645.01, and this is shown as "Margin Cash" in the portfolio.  Mark will have to repay this money, with interest, when he closes his short position, and we'll do the accounting for all of that when the position closes.  Let's also all hope for both Mark's any my sake that Apples price drops, or I'm also going to have to be watching for conditions under which Mark will face a margin call.  I am SOOOO not looking forward to that!

Your questions and comments are welcome.  There is also a PDF file attached to this message.
25 Stocks to Own in 2007       Prices as of 9/30/2007
         
  Symbol Last price Qty Mkt. val.
         
Danny Matthews' Portfolio        
Bank of America Corporation BAC $50.27 19.393 $974.91
Costco Wholesale Corporation COST $61.37 19.052 $1,169.21
Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM $92.56 13.216 $1,223.29
LifeCell Corporation LIFC $37.57 41.425 $1,556.34
Paychex, Inc. PAYX $41.00 25.733 $1,055.05
        $5,978.80
         
Doug Gerlach's Portfolio        
American Medical Systems Holdings, Inc. AMMD $16.95 53.996 $915.23
CRA International, Inc. CRAI $48.19 19.084 $919.66
Hi-Tech Pharmacal Co. HITK $11.87    
Mobile Mini, Inc. MINI $24.16 34.082 $823.41
PetMed Express, Inc. PETS $14.01 74.906 $1,049.44
TALX Corporation TALX $35.95    
The Corporate Executive Board Company EXBD $74.24 16.829 $1,249.39
        $4,957.13
         
Ellis Traub's Portfolio        
Knight Transportation KNX $17.21 58.910 $1,013.84
Lennar Corporation LEN $22.65 19.295 $437.02
Level 3 Communications LLL $102.14 12.327 $1,259.13
Lowes LOW $28.02 32.297 $904.95
UnitedHealth Group Inc. UNH $48.43 18.622 $901.86
        $4,516.80
         
Mark Robertson's Portfolio        
Apple AAPL $153.47 -20.000 ($3,069.40)
AIG-AMERIC. INT. GRP AIG $67.65 0.000  
Apollo Investment AINV $20.80 43.993 $915.05
Home Depot HD $32.44 25.347 $822.25
Linear Technology Corporation LLTC $34.99 33.501 $1,172.18
The Corporate Executive Board Company EXBD $74.24 0.000  
Vanguard Growth ETF VUG $64.75 0.000  
Walgreen Company WAG $47.24 21.914 $1,035.22
Cash ($)       $1,041.42
Margin Cash ($)       $2,645.01
        $4,561.73
         
Ralph Seger's Portfolio        
Amgen, Inc. AMGN $56.57 14.639 $828.14
Caremark Rx, Inc. CMX $58.35    
Fastenal Company FAST $45.41 27.442 $1,246.12
Level 3 Communications LLL $102.14 12.327 $1,259.13
Lowes LOW $28.02 32.297 $904.95
Quality Systems, Inc. QSII $36.63 27.663 $1,013.28
        $5,251.62

Attachment: 25Stocks-ThirdQuarter.pdf


Joe

Danny Matthews


10/07/2007 2:51 PM  

 Mark  sold 20 shares of Apple (shares that he did not own).  To do that, Mark had to borrow $2645.01, and this is shown as "Margin Cash" in the portfolio. 

Please explain the process. When did margin accounts start? Don't investors lose their capital gains break when they are trading their account on margin?


Danny Matthews
Tuscola IL

Danny Matthews


10/07/2007 3:13 PM  

Here's a link to my portfolio on ManifestInvesting with updated shares. Prices as of 10/5/07

http://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboard/5589


Danny Matthews
Tuscola IL

Danny Matthews


10/22/2007 6:38 PM  

do you have the worksheet that shows returns for the five portfolios?


Danny Matthews
Tuscola IL

Jim Thomas


11/25/2007 2:25 PM  

Joe, please clarify how you see the following situation ...

> [On 7/5/2007] Mark sold AIG in June so that he could short Apple: Mark  sold 20 shares of Apple (shares that he did not own).  To do that, Mark had to borrow $2645.01, and this is shown as "Margin Cash" in the portfolio.  Mark will have to repay this money, with interest, when he closes his short position, and we'll do the accounting for all of that when the position closes. <

It's been nearly 6 months since Mark shorted AAPL.  I think it's past time to (1) start accounting for margin interest and (2) define the circumstances that would trigger a margin call.

At Nov 23rd closing prices, the value of the four long positions in the portfolio ($3,422) are now less than the value of the short position in AAPL (-$3,431).  The total portfolio value is $3,678, of which $2,645 (71.9%) is borrowed.  That's getting very close to triggering (what I think is) a 25% maintenance requirement for a margin call.

In fact, looking back, I see now that with Nov 7th closing prices the total portfolio value was $3,436 (including the margin interest that should have already been paid would further reduce this value).  That makes the borrowed $2,645 equal to 77% of the total portfolio value.  It seems to me that should have triggered a margin call based on a 25% maintenance requirement.  Presumably, since the rules of the contest don't allow adding more cash, that would have forced the sale of some of the long positions.

-Jim Thomas


Jim Thomas


12/05/2007 9:41 AM  

> At Nov 23rd closing prices ... The total portfolio value is $3,678, of which $2,645 (71.9%) is borrowed.  That's getting very close to triggering (what I think is) a 25% maintenance requirement for a margin call. <

The amount of the portfolio value that's borrowed has been above 75% evey day since 11/27.  Currently (12/4 closing prices), 78% of the portfolio value is borrowed.  Seems past time for a margin call to me.

-Jim Thomas


Danny Matthews


12/05/2007 10:58 AM  

Seems past time for a margin call to me.

-Jim Thomas

Me too, please explain the process as I have no clue to the workings of shorting stocks, put calls, naked shorts or whatever those transactions accomplish. Are these more useful to traders vs long term investors? Also is there a worksheet that shows YTD returns?


Danny Matthews
Tuscola IL

Jim Thomas


12/05/2007 1:30 PM  
> please explain the process as I have no clue to the workings of shorting stocks <

I don't have a great grasp of the rules for shorting stocks and margin calls. I'm not even certain that I'm calculating margin percentage in the appropriate way to determine what would trigger a margin call.

That's why I asked Joe to clarify how he sees the situation (since he's in charge of defining the contest rules).

-Jim Thomas

Jim Thomas


12/05/2007 2:04 PM  

> Also is there a worksheet that shows YTD returns? <

Joe keeps the official records for the contest.

However I track the portfolios too (and Joe and I compare notes from time to time).  I update http://www.bivio.com/irw/files/PublicFiles/StockCentral/scOverview.xls generally every weekend.  This shows a week-by-week graph of % appreciation in portfolio value.  For comparison, it also shows % appreciation in VTSMX and a "15% return" line.

At present, Danny, your portfolio is the only one of the five that hasn't lost money since the beginning of the contest.

-Jim Thomas


Danny Matthews


12/05/2007 2:13 PM  

Thanks Jim that's what I was wondering about my total return. this includes dividends, correct?


Danny Matthews
Tuscola IL

Jim Thomas


12/05/2007 3:21 PM  

Yes, it includes reinvested dividends.  At Nov 30th closing prices, your portfolio was worth $6,048, or 21% more than the $5,000 you started with.  21% is the value that's shown on the graph in the spreadsheet I refered to.  Just to be clear, the 21% isn't an annualized rate of return.  It's just the percentage change from the $5,000 that everyone started with.

-Jim Thomas







Jim Thomas


12/05/2007 8:46 PM  
> I think it's past time to (1) start accounting for margin interest and (2) define the circumstances that would trigger a margin call. <

I still think the above is true.

> At Nov 23rd closing prices ... The total portfolio value is $3,678, of which $2,645 (71.9%) is borrowed. That's getting very close to triggering (what I think is) a 25% maintenance requirement for a margin call. <

I've been doing some reading and the above is not the correct way to calculate the margin maintenance requirement for a short sale. The actual rule is to maintain equity in the account (total portfolio value) equal to at least 25% of the market value of the shorted stock. In other words, to maintain at least 25% *more* value in cash and long positions than would be needed to cover the short position (i.e., purchase the short stock at current market value by selling, as needed, long positions to raise cash).

25% is a *minimum* and individual brokers are free to establish their own higher minimums. Apparently 30% to 40% isn't uncommon. Establishing an appropriate margin maintenance percentage would be part of defining the criteria for a margin call in this contest.

At Dec 5th closing prices the total portfolio value (equity) is $3,336 while the market value of the shorted AAPL stock is $3,710. $3,336 is quite a bit more than 25% of $3,710 ($928) , so a margin call is not at all imminent. Even at 40%, the minimum equity would be $1,484.

-Jim Thomas

faith fessenden


12/05/2007 8:49 PM  

"It's been nearly 6 months since Mark shorted AAPL"

 

hmmm....I was under the impression that this contest was to employ our tried and true principles..........

"short selling"??????

 

by the looks of the graph the only "shorting" result I see is Mark's portfolio taking a long walk off of a "short" pier.

Go Danny!!

 

faith f.

reno, nv


Danny Matthews


12/05/2007 9:40 PM  

Establishing an appropriate margin maintenance percentage would be part of defining the criteria for a margin call in this contest.

-Jim Thomas

Thanks for the explanation Jim.  Trading shorts, calls , puts is way beyond my expertise...I mean way!  Much info, now my shorts are in a knot!!! 

 


Danny Matthews
Tuscola IL
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